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A newly published medical study offers opportunity to make a very conservative extrapolation of the number of Jehovah’s Witnesses who have suffered premature death abiding by Watchtower’s blood doctrine.

The article Clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of allogeneic red-blood-cell transfusion in severe symptomatic anaemia is a retrospective observational study comparing patients treated with allogeneic red blood cell (ARBC) transfusion against Jehovah’s Witness patients who refused ARBC transfusion and were treated in accord with the Watchtower organization’s blood doctrine.[1]

Profound results

Data was collected from 4 major public hospitals in New Zealand during the years 1998-2007.[2] This study found 103 Witness patients who suffered severe anemia and 20.4% of these died (i.e., 21 of these patients died). During this period the death rate among patients who suffered severe anemia but accepted ARBC transfusion was 1.9%. The net difference in mortality rate is 18.45%. Of the Witnesses who died, the number who died over and beyond the group that accepted ARBC transfusion (the non-Witness group) is 19, or 18.45% of the 103.

We have this extrapolation:

● Over a 10 year period there were 19 Witnesses who died that shouldn’t have. That’s 1.9 per year.

● Over the same 10 year period the number of Witnesses in New Zealand averaged 12,700. 1.9 deaths per year is .015% of the Witness population.

● During year 2011 the Watchtower organization presents the number of Jehovah’s Witnesses at 7,400,000.[3] 0.015% of this number is 1109.

● During year 2011 there were 1109 premature deaths among Jehovah's Witnesses due to Watchtower's blood doctrine.

That figure is low

The original data was gathered from 4 hospitals in New Zealand. But New Zealand has more than 80 hospitals. The 4 used in this study are in the Northern and Midland regions with 57% of the Nation’s population. Population in the Central and Southern regions constitute the remaining 43%. Each of these regions has comparable basic, district and advanced trauma care services.[4]

If the annual mortality of .015% is prorated for 57% of the Witness population then the overall annual mortality rate is .026%. That is, the extrapolated annual rate of mortality for Witnesses who suffer death from severe anemia as a result of Watchtower’s blood doctrine is .026%.

Now we have this extrapolation:

● Over a 10 year period 33 Witnesses in New Zealand died that shouldn’t have. That’s 3.3 per year.

● Over the same 10 year period the number of Witnesses in New Zealand averaged 12,700. 3.3 deaths per year is .026% of the Witness population.

● During year 2011 the Watchtower organization presents the number of Jehovah’s Witnesses at 7,400,000. 0.026% of this number is 1,924.

● During year 2011 there were 1,924 premature deaths among Jehovah's Witnesses due to Watchtower's blood doctrine.

This latter extrapolation is based on data from only 4 hospitals with trauma services out of 14 such hospitals in the 2 regions. It would be naïve to think only 4 of these 14 hospitals had deaths among Witnesses suffering from severe anemia. Accordingly the figure of 1,924 deaths for year 2011 must be low. The effective mortality rate of 0.026% is conservative.

Discussion

Data used in this extrapolation comes from New Zealand. Healthcare and medical outcomes in New Zealand consistently rank in the uppermost tier according to the World Health Organization (WHO).[5]

Extrapolation made in this article is based on the following:

1. Actual mortality rate of patients who rejected ARBC transfusion to treat severe anemia and died compared with those who received ARBC transfusion to treat severe anemia and died. The former suffered a mortality rate of 20.4% and the latter suffered a mortality rate of 1.9%. This nets a statistic of 18.45% mortality over the norm for patients suffering severe anemia and reject ARBC transfusion to treat it.[1]

2. Statistical frequency of severe anemia suffered annually among Jehovah’s Witnesses. This frequency is at least 1.43 per 1,000. (0.81 of this sum results from hard data gathered from hospitals serving 57% of New Zealand’s population and 0.61 of this sum is calculated based on the remaining service area of 43% of New Zealand’s population.[1, 4]) Both service areas have comparable care facilities.)

3. The number of Jehovah’s Witnesses reported in the sum of “average publishers” by the Watchtower organization on an annual basis.[6]

18.45% of 1.43 deaths per 1,000 is 0.26 deaths per 1,000.

The average number of Jehovah’s Witnesses in New Zealand for years 1998 -2007 was 12,700 per year. 0.26 deaths per 1,000 of this population is 3.3 deaths per year.

The average number of Jehovah’s Witnesses in the world for year 2011 is reported at 7,400,000. 0.26 deaths per 1,000 of this population is 1924 deaths.

Conclusion

It is conservative to say thousands of Jehovah’s Witnesses die annually because of abiding by Watchtower’s blood doctrine that could otherwise been saved. Applying the rate of 0.026% to published figures of Jehovah's Witnesses, since 1961 we can conservatively estimate that at least 50,000 of Jehovah's Witnesses have died due to Watchtower's blood doctrine.[7]

This conclusion is based on hard data gathered in one of the world’s healthiest populations having excellent health care providers and facilities, and there is every reason to think this data does not include all deaths suffered by Jehovah's Witnesses suffering severe anemia in the given population. It is also noteworthy that in years predating this data collection the Watchtower organization’s blood doctrine was much more restrictive, which would necessarily lend itself to an even greater rate of mortality suffered by the Jehovah’s Witness community during those previous years.[8-9]

Accordingly, the actual number of Jehovah’s Witnesses suffering premature death due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine must be far higher than 50,000 since year 1961.[10]

Marvin Shilmer
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References

1. Beliaev et al, Clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of allogeneic red-blood-cell transfusion in severe symptomatic anaemia, Vox Sanguinis (Early View, Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue), Article first published online: December 13, 2011.

2. Auckland City, North Shore, Middlemore, and Waikato hospitals.

3. 2012 Yearbook of Jehovah's Witnesses, published by Watchtower, 2011.

4. Audit of Trauma Care Services in New Zealand, New Zealand Health Information Service, June 1994.

5. World Health Statistics 2005, World Health Organization.

6. This statistic is found in the book Yearbook of Jehovah's Witnesses, published annually by the Watchtower organization.

7. For more on mortality experienced by Jehovah’s Witnesses related to Watchtower’s blood doctrine see the articles:

● Death Statistic

● Anemia — 10 times more Witnesses die

● Stark Reality Facing Jehovah’s Witnesses on Blood

● Watchtower doctrine that kills Jehovah’s Witnesses

8. In year 2000 the Watchtower organization overhauled its blood doctrine to permit substantially more blood products to be used by Jehovah’s Witnesses without religious repercussion. The above cited study by Beliaev et al demonstrates an overall mortality rate of 20.4% over the years of 1998-2007 yet a similar data collection for years 1970-1993 shows an overall mortality of 37%. (See: Veile et al, Anemia in Jehovah's Witnesses, Transfusion, 1994, Vol. 34, No. 5, pp. 396-401)

9. The Watchtower organization’s blood doctrine since year 2000 has allowed Jehovah’s Witnesses to accept products such as hemoblogin based oxygenation agents whereas this were previously disallowed. See 2002 Handout on Blood

10. 1961 marks the year Watchtower's blood doctrine began to be imposed under penalty of the religion's organized communal shunning policy. For more on these subjects see the articles: